The NFC East has long be considered to be the toughest division in the NFL, in eight of the past ten seasons, a team from that division has earned a wildcard spot; two of those seasons actually saw both wildcard spots in the NFC go to a team in that division. This year will be no different when it comes to predicting who will win that division, since there is more than one team with the potential to do so, and not many people would be surprised to see that the winner of that division will not even be known until week 17.
Yet, this season, it is another division that seems to be attracting all the attention, and that is the AFC East. It has been a long time since we have heard of the possibility of any team other than the New England Patriots being considered as the true contender in that division, yet during this offseason, that same argument has been made for not only the Patriots, but also the Jets and the Dolphins. Of course all these arguments are just that, arguments, and in reality they are biased by the opinions of the person writing them, but they are still enjoyable to read, and I would love to take the time to make mine.
So the question is: What team is most likely to win the division? And as many of you would suspect by now, my answer to that is that in my opinion the Dolphins have a pretty good shot and in the end it could be their division to lose, and I’ll explain what I mean by that later in this article, but first I want to take a chance to look at what our competition in that division is.
Let’s start off with the Buffalo Bills, they ended last season with a 6-10 record last season, which in reality represents only a one game difference between them and Miami, still, they are clearly the weakest team in the division. While other teams in the division have strengthened their roster this offseason, the Bills seem to have done the opposite, they let go of two of their receivers, Terrell Owens and Josh Reed and did nothing to strengthen their offensive line or improve their quarterback position. Unless C.J. Spiller can singlehandedly run them into winning games, I don’t see how they have a shot of winning the division. That’s not to say that we should underestimate them, we did that last year when we went to play them at Buffalo and that could very well be the game that cost us a ticket to the playoffs. A divisional opponent is always tough because they know your team best, but in the long run, I don’t think Buffalo has the pieces necessary to win the division.
The New England Patriots on the other hand are the team that has dominated the division for almost a decade, they have won the division seven out of the last nine seasons, and their most recent loss came on the season when Tom Brady was out due to injury. There is no doubt that Brady is one of the best QBs in the league, or that Bellichick is one of the best coaches either, but the team is getting older and it is not yet known when Wes Welker will be able to play again, or even if he’ll be able to play during the regular season at all and that is something that will hurt them. We all saw the beating that the Patriots took in the playoffs when facing the Ravens, and although they have the time to work on alternatives and correct all the mistakes that were made during that game, the team is definitely not the dynasty it used to be. That being said, the Patriots are still the team that I believe represents the biggest threat to us in the division, Bellichick is a smart guy and they did manage to keep the guys they wanted on the team on, as well as adding new key pieces through the draft.
The New York Jets have been one of the most talked about teams, there has been a lot of buzz surrounding their big name signings and all the moves they managed to make this offseason, and sitting here and saying they don’t represent a threat would be a lie because I believe they are, but by the same token I believe they are easily the most overrated team as of now. It is a fact that the Jets have the strongest defense in the NFL, and if you believe that defense wins championships then the Jets should’ve won it all, but the thing is it takes an offense as well, which is precisely why they didn’t. Mark Sanchez has yet to prove that he is as good as they think he is, now he will have an opportunity to show if he has it in him, since the tools were provided to him. In last year’s playoffs, the Jets had one decent game, and that was against the Colts who still managed to easily beat them; it was a little bit of luck and a couple of teams who benched their players who got them there. Still, that was last year and the games we played against them were very tough, this year, they have added new players, they have a new stadium and there’s a lot of hype surrounding them so they are under a lot of pressure to perform. This season is “make it or break it” for the Jets, either they live up to the expectations or they turn out to be this season’s biggest disappointment.
Finally, we have the Miami Dolphins; Miami made a big move to improve their offense with the acquisition of Brandon Marshall, not only is Marshall the guy that can tremendously improve the passing game by adding significantly in yards after the catch which is one of the areas in which we have struggled, but he is a tool for Henne to grow into his full capacity as a QB and he is also key in stretching the field which gives rise to improving the performance of the rest of the receivers which come from having just had a good season. Incognito brings with him the attitude that could make our offensive line more aggressive, and Dansby along with the guys drafted strengthen our defense significantly despite the losses that we saw. The Dolphins might be a little over looked by some but they have what it takes to win the division, and they got lucky enough with the schedule to take that lead quickly, which I believe will be the key in the end.
During the first four weeks of the 2010 season, all teams in the AFC East will play each of their divisional opponents once. I honestly believe that the standing at the end of these four weeks will be indicative of which team has the better shot at winning the division. Leading the division going into the bye week, which for Miami is indeed week 5, has the added benefit of putting the players in a great mental state to play each of the games that follows and would leave all the other teams in the division playing catch up to the Dolphins, and this is why I say this could possibly be in the end our division to lose.
Out of all the teams in the division, the Dolphins have the better chance of being 4-0 overall, or at least 3-0 in the division than any other team, and here is why. All four teams in the AFC East have 2 home games and 2 away games during those first four weeks, the Patriots play the Bengals and the Bills at home and Miami and the Jets away, making two of their toughest games road games; the Jets play the Ravens and the Patriots at home and Buffalo and Miami away, which means they have the advantage over the Patriots of having two of their toughest games at home, finally Miami plays the Bills and the Vikings away, and the Patriots and the Jets at home, again two of their toughest games are played at home which gives them the advantage, the greatest advantage though is being able to face the Jets at home, which should be enough to give us the edge if we do intend to win it all this season. Miami might also have a slight advantage when it comes to that non divisional game that will take place because the rumors as of now are Favre is not coming back, and while we all know that nothing is certain when it comes to Favre, if this does turn out to be the season when he does decide to retire, we would be facing the Vikings early enough that it could give the team an advantage over one of the teams I consider to be one of the toughest in the schedule.
Now I understand that the season is 17 weeks long and it might be unfair to think that a division can be decided in the first few weeks of playing, what fun would that be? But if the top spot for the division is going to be so hard to conquer, wouldn’t you rather be defending it than making a push for it in the end?